I was just reviewing an article about highly valued startups Uber and Xiaomi ($46B)…
Such valuations greatly complicate my day job, as they skew expectations among entrepreneurs. Grandiose outcomes are easily remembered, while statistical probabilities quickly fade in memory as something that happens to "other people" starting businesses - nearly ALL other people. Founders enthusiastically cite "that guy who dropped out of Harvard, and became a billionaire". Unfortunately, they've never met the 100,000 others who dropped out of college to build the "next big thing", and have subsequently "pivoted" in their exploration of free markets to artfully commercialize grande, extra hot, skinny, triple caramel macchiatos.
World domination is a lofty goal, and I’m reminded of a cartoon scene where the villain contemplates taking over the world, but his mentor proposes something more attainable – like seizing the Tri-State area. Don’t assume you’ll be a rare exception in skipping ahead to billion-dollar valuations, because entrepreneurs are far more likely to be driving a 1982 Toyota Corolla than a Lamborghini Aventador.
At this writing, the Wall Street Journal cites 70 startups with $1B+ valuations worldwide (http://graphics.wsj.com/billion-dollar-club/). That’s one seven and a zero. So, using loose math with a world population of seven billion, the odds of a given human achieving such a valuation would be 0.000001%. Considering the abundance of smoking craters surrounding these billion-dollar companies, it is perhaps apropos that you’re 143 times more likely to be killed by an asteroid. In this context, I might suggest an attainable goal: start your entrepreneurial ambitions, and defy statistics, by simply achieving a valuation greater than zero.
Such valuations greatly complicate my day job, as they skew expectations among entrepreneurs. Grandiose outcomes are easily remembered, while statistical probabilities quickly fade in memory as something that happens to "other people" starting businesses - nearly ALL other people. Founders enthusiastically cite "that guy who dropped out of Harvard, and became a billionaire". Unfortunately, they've never met the 100,000 others who dropped out of college to build the "next big thing", and have subsequently "pivoted" in their exploration of free markets to artfully commercialize grande, extra hot, skinny, triple caramel macchiatos.
World domination is a lofty goal, and I’m reminded of a cartoon scene where the villain contemplates taking over the world, but his mentor proposes something more attainable – like seizing the Tri-State area. Don’t assume you’ll be a rare exception in skipping ahead to billion-dollar valuations, because entrepreneurs are far more likely to be driving a 1982 Toyota Corolla than a Lamborghini Aventador.
At this writing, the Wall Street Journal cites 70 startups with $1B+ valuations worldwide (http://graphics.wsj.com/billion-dollar-club/). That’s one seven and a zero. So, using loose math with a world population of seven billion, the odds of a given human achieving such a valuation would be 0.000001%. Considering the abundance of smoking craters surrounding these billion-dollar companies, it is perhaps apropos that you’re 143 times more likely to be killed by an asteroid. In this context, I might suggest an attainable goal: start your entrepreneurial ambitions, and defy statistics, by simply achieving a valuation greater than zero.
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